Digital Diversion

Uno

Microsoft’s “Major Nelson” shared some Xbox Live statistics post-NXE launch on his blog this week.  Some of the data I have already reported on in my previous post on NXE but there are a few new tidbits (quoted directly from Major Nelson’s blog) that I feel are worthy of discussion:

• Movie downloads increased 49% and TV episode downloads were up 30% the week after launch
• Xbox LIVE Arcade sales almost tripled in the first week after the New Xbox Experience launched
• Avatar-specific titles like A Kingdom for Keflings registered the second-best first week of performance ever
• UNO which was updated to include in-game Avatars, saw a 650% increase in sales in just one day

All-in-all this sounds like a great initial result but I think it’s worth tempering enthusiasm or holding off on any conclusions by pointing out the missing pieces of the picture which are needed to really understand what’s going on.  The biggest nagging question is how did the actual launch of NXE drive Xbox Live usage?  If most people were like me and fired up their Xbox 360 on November 19th for the NXE upgrade, then it’s safe to assume that overall usage was up due to the NXE upgrade.  So citing week-over-week increases in transactions is misleading when not viewed as a percent of overall activity; overall growth may be positive but transactions as a percent of users may have actually declined.  When it comes to specific title usage such as UNO, my experience in the games industry tells me that simply by promoting a title, no matter how good or bad it may be, will drive usage up by 2-3x.  A 650% increase in sales in one day for one title is huge, but not all of that growth can be attributed to the fact that the game now includes in-game avatars.

Will NXE change consumer behavior?  Absolutely, and especially as new content is added to take advantage of new features.  But while several publications have pointed to these intital results as an indication of succcess, I will withhold judgement.